Re: Simulating the 2026 Junior Pan Pacs Roster: An Unofficial Look at Who the Priority Rules Point To
The official 2026 Junior Pan Pacific Championships roster is out, so it's a good time to check our projection against it — where we got it right, where we didn't, and why.
The Scorecard
Women: 14 of 20 projected selections matched the official roster.
Projected but not official: Rylee Erisman, Brinkleigh Hansen, Sydney Schoeck, Charlotte Crush, Alex Siegel, Emily Wolf
Official but missed by projection: Paige Downey, Ellie Clarke, Kennedi Southern, Vivienne Zangaro, Lane Francis, Mia Buff
Men: 19 of 20 matched.
Projected but not official: Cullen Kahl
Official but missed by projection: Ellis Crisci
The Known Issue
Our model builds projections from final time rankings, filtered by age eligibility — it doesn't currently know which heat a swimmer actually competed in. That's a meaningful gap, because selection isn't purely time-based: only athletes who actually swim in the 18-U final are eligible for consideration in that event. A swimmer can be fast enough on paper and still be ineligible, for reasons our current data doesn't capture.
We've traced most of the women's misses back to two variants of that same root cause:
1. Already on a Senior Pan Pacs Team.
Rylee Erisman (Pan Pacs) and Brinkleigh Hansen (open water) were both already on senior rosters heading into this meet, which makes them ineligible for Junior Pan Pacs regardless of how fast they swam here. Our model has no way to check senior-team status yet, so it projected them anyway.
2. Opted out of the 18-U final entirely.
Charlotte Crush swam directly in the Open final in every event we checked, with no record of racing an 18-U final all week — meaning she was never actually in consideration for a Junior Pan Pacs spot, whatever her time-only ranking suggested. Sydney Schoeck's results follow the same pattern in the events we've checked so far, though we haven't confirmed it across her full event list yet.
The Boys' Side: Fully Resolved
The one men's miss came down to a head-to-head Priority-3 comparison, not a data gap:
Ellis Crisci, 400 Free: 3:50.89 vs. 3:42.43 Medal Standard = +3.806%
Cullen Kahl, 200 IM: 2:00.28 vs. 1:55.80 Medal Standard = +3.869%
Luka Mijatovic opted out of the 400 Free 18-U final, and Crisci was actually 2nd place in that final. Crisci ended up marginally closer to the Medal Standard than Kahl, which gave him the last Priority-3 spot. Straightforward once you have the actual final results — our projection just didn't know about Mijatovic's opt-out.
Still Open
After the known-issue cases above, the remaining women's differences are:
Projected: Alex Siegel, Sydney Schoeck, Kayla Han, Mena Boardman
Official: Kennedi Southern, Vivienne Zangaro, Grace Koenig-Song, Mia Buff
We haven't traced these back to a specific cause yet. We'll follow up once we've worked through them. In the meantime, this is exactly the kind of gap that tells us where to improve the model — tracking actual 18-U vs. Open final participation, and senior-team status, instead of relying on time rankings alone.
Official 2026 Junior Pan Pacs Roster
Women
First Name
Last Name
Club
Events
Gabi
Brito
Beach Cities Alpha
100 FR, 50 FL, 100 FL, 50 BK
Sadie
Buckley
Nations Capital Swim Club
200 IM, 400 IM
Mia
Buff
Greater Toledo Aquatic Club
50 FL
Abi
Burke
T2 Aquatics
200 FR, 400 FR
Ellie
Clarke
Carmel Swim Club
200 BK
Audrey
Derivaux
Jersey Wahoos
100 FL, 200 FL, 200 BK, 200 IM, 400 IM
Paige
Downey
Gold Medal Swim Club
800 FR, 1500 FR
Lane
Francis
NOVA of Virginia
100 BK
Kayda
Geyer
Mecklenberg Swim Association
200 BR
Aria
Grossenbach
Patriot Aquatic Club
100 FR
Sydney
Hardy
Sarasota Sharks
200 FR
Zara
Kocak
Excel Aquatics
200 FL
Grace
Koenig-Song
NASA Wildcat Aquatics
50 BR, 100 BR
Kate
McKinnon
Aquawolves Swim Team
50 FR
Zayda
Miehl
Corvallis Aquatic Team
800 FR, 1500 FR
Maddie
Moreth
Valparaiso Swim Club
50 BR, 100 BR
Alyssa
Sagle
Nations Capital Swim Club
50 BK, 100 BK
Kennedi
Southern
Lakeside Aquatic Club
50 FL
Kaidy
Stout
Greensboro Swimming Association
200 BR
Vivienn
Zangaro
Long Island Aquatic Club
400 FR
Men
First Name
Last Name
Club
Events
Jordan
Ragland
Life Time Northern California
100 FR
Mike
Rice
Mecklenberg Swim Association
100 FR
Kai
Joyner
Rochester Swim Club
200 FR
Luka
Mijatovic
Pleasanton Seahawks
200 FR, 800 FR, 1500 FR
Ewan
Dalrymple
Columbia Swimming
200 FL
Wilson
York
Lakeside Swim Team
200 BR
Davis
Jackson
TAC Titans
50 BK, 100 BK
Jake
Lloyd
Central Ohio Aquatics
50 FL
Yi
Zheng
Carmel Swim Club
400 IM
Charlie
Cancelmo
Seattle Metropolitan Aquatic Club
100 FL
Ian
Call
Nashville Aquatic Club
50 BR, 100 BR
Ethan
Bathala
Bolles School Sharks
50 BK
Trent
Allen
Carmel Swim Club
400 FR
Ty
Thomas
River City Aquatics
100 BK
Jackson
Hartzler
Cypress Fairbanks Swim Club
200 IM
Brody
Chandler
Sierra Marlins Swim Team
50 FR
Andrew
Eubanks
The Dolphins Swim Team
50 BR, 100 BR
Anthony
Dornoff
La Mirada Armada Swim Team
400 IM
David
Sammons
SwimMAC Carolina
200 FL
Ellis
Crisci
Tsunami Swim Team of Kansas City
400 FR, 1500 FR