Reviewing Our 2026 Junior Pan Pacs Roster Projection

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Re: Simulating the 2026 Junior Pan Pacs Roster: An Unofficial Look at Who the Priority Rules Point To

The official 2026 Junior Pan Pacific Championships roster is out, so it's a good time to check our projection against it — where we got it right, where we didn't, and why.

The Scorecard

Women: 14 of 20 projected selections matched the official roster.

• Projected but not official: Rylee Erisman, Brinkleigh Hansen, Sydney Schoeck, Charlotte Crush, Alex Siegel, Emily Wolf
• Official but missed by projection: Paige Downey, Ellie Clarke, Kennedi Southern, Vivienne Zangaro, Lane Francis, Mia Buff

Men: 19 of 20 matched.

• Projected but not official: Cullen Kahl
• Official but missed by projection: Ellis Crisci

The Known Issue

Our model builds projections from final time rankings, filtered by age eligibility — it doesn't currently know which heat a swimmer actually competed in. That's a meaningful gap, because selection isn't purely time-based: only athletes who actually swim in the 18-U final are eligible for consideration in that event. A swimmer can be fast enough on paper and still be ineligible, for reasons our current data doesn't capture.

We've traced most of the women's misses back to two variants of that same root cause:

1. Already on a Senior Pan Pacs Team.
Rylee Erisman (Pan Pacs) and Brinkleigh Hansen (open water) were both already on senior rosters heading into this meet, which makes them ineligible for Junior Pan Pacs regardless of how fast they swam here. Our model has no way to check senior-team status yet, so it projected them anyway.

2. Opted out of the 18-U final entirely.
Charlotte Crush swam directly in the Open final in every event we checked, with no record of racing an 18-U final all week — meaning she was never actually in consideration for a Junior Pan Pacs spot, whatever her time-only ranking suggested. Sydney Schoeck's results follow the same pattern in the events we've checked so far, though we haven't confirmed it across her full event list yet.

The Boys' Side: Fully Resolved

The one men's miss came down to a head-to-head Priority-3 comparison, not a data gap:

• Ellis Crisci, 400 Free: 3:50.89 vs. 3:42.43 Medal Standard = +3.806%
• Cullen Kahl, 200 IM: 2:00.28 vs. 1:55.80 Medal Standard = +3.869%

Luka Mijatovic opted out of the 400 Free 18-U final, and Crisci was actually 2nd place in that final. Crisci ended up marginally closer to the Medal Standard than Kahl, which gave him the last Priority-3 spot. Straightforward once you have the actual final results — our projection just didn't know about Mijatovic's opt-out.

Still Open

After the known-issue cases above, the remaining women's differences are:

• Projected: Alex Siegel, Sydney Schoeck, Kayla Han, Mena Boardman
• Official: Kennedi Southern, Vivienne Zangaro, Grace Koenig-Song, Mia Buff

We haven't traced these back to a specific cause yet. We'll follow up once we've worked through them. In the meantime, this is exactly the kind of gap that tells us where to improve the model — tracking actual 18-U vs. Open final participation, and senior-team status, instead of relying on time rankings alone.

Official 2026 Junior Pan Pacs Roster

Women

First Name	Last Name	Club	Events
Gabi	Brito	Beach Cities Alpha	100 FR, 50 FL, 100 FL, 50 BK
Sadie	Buckley	Nations Capital Swim Club	200 IM, 400 IM
Mia	Buff	Greater Toledo Aquatic Club	50 FL
Abi	Burke	T2 Aquatics	200 FR, 400 FR
Ellie	Clarke	Carmel Swim Club	200 BK
Audrey	Derivaux	Jersey Wahoos	100 FL, 200 FL, 200 BK, 200 IM, 400 IM
Paige	Downey	Gold Medal Swim Club	800 FR, 1500 FR
Lane	Francis	NOVA of Virginia	100 BK
Kayda	Geyer	Mecklenberg Swim Association	200 BR
Aria	Grossenbach	Patriot Aquatic Club	100 FR
Sydney	Hardy	Sarasota Sharks	200 FR
Zara	Kocak	Excel Aquatics	200 FL
Grace	Koenig-Song	NASA Wildcat Aquatics	50 BR, 100 BR
Kate	McKinnon	Aquawolves Swim Team	50 FR
Zayda	Miehl	Corvallis Aquatic Team	800 FR, 1500 FR
Maddie	Moreth	Valparaiso Swim Club	50 BR, 100 BR
Alyssa	Sagle	Nations Capital Swim Club	50 BK, 100 BK
Kennedi	Southern	Lakeside Aquatic Club	50 FL
Kaidy	Stout	Greensboro Swimming Association	200 BR
Vivienn	Zangaro	Long Island Aquatic Club	400 FR

Men

First Name	Last Name	Club	Events
Jordan	Ragland	Life Time Northern California	100 FR
Mike	Rice	Mecklenberg Swim Association	100 FR
Kai	Joyner	Rochester Swim Club	200 FR
Luka	Mijatovic	Pleasanton Seahawks	200 FR, 800 FR, 1500 FR
Ewan	Dalrymple	Columbia Swimming	200 FL
Wilson	York	Lakeside Swim Team	200 BR
Davis	Jackson	TAC Titans	50 BK, 100 BK
Jake	Lloyd	Central Ohio Aquatics	50 FL
Yi	Zheng	Carmel Swim Club	400 IM
Charlie	Cancelmo	Seattle Metropolitan Aquatic Club	100 FL
Ian	Call	Nashville Aquatic Club	50 BR, 100 BR
Ethan	Bathala	Bolles School Sharks	50 BK
Trent	Allen	Carmel Swim Club	400 FR
Ty	Thomas	River City Aquatics	100 BK
Jackson	Hartzler	Cypress Fairbanks Swim Club	200 IM
Brody	Chandler	Sierra Marlins Swim Team	50 FR
Andrew	Eubanks	The Dolphins Swim Team	50 BR, 100 BR
Anthony	Dornoff	La Mirada Armada Swim Team	400 IM
David	Sammons	SwimMAC Carolina	200 FL
Ellis	Crisci	Tsunami Swim Team of Kansas City	400 FR, 1500 FR