Simulating the 2026 Junior Pan Pacs Roster: An Unofficial Look at Who the Priority Rules Point To
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Important: this is not the official roster. USA Swimming will announce the actual 2026 Junior Pan Pacific Championships team based on the Finish Order of Available Swimmers in the 18-and-under finals at the 2026 Toyota National Championships. This unofficial simulation applies USA Swimming's published priority rules to final-event records in the Swim Standards database, ranking swimmers by final time because the data does not retain official finish positions. Scratches, disqualifications, and other official selection details may cause the actual roster to differ.
With that context, here is what the updated simulation projects.
How the Simulation Works
USA Swimming's eight selection priorities are applied separately to women and men, with a maximum of 20 swimmers on each roster. Full details are available in USA Swimming's 2026 Junior Pan Pacific Championships Athlete Selection Procedures:
- The two best-finishing Available Swimmers in each of the 100 Free and 200 Free
- The best-finishing Available Swimmer in each other event
- The second-best-finishing Available Swimmer in each other event
- The third-best-finishing Available Swimmer in the 100 Free
- The third-best-finishing Available Swimmer in the 200 Free
- The fourth-best-finishing Available Swimmer in the 100 Free
- The fourth-best-finishing Available Swimmer in the 200 Free
- The third-best-finishing Available Swimmer in each other event
The wording “in each of the 100 Free and 200 Free” is important: Priority 1 can initially identify four event positions—two from the 100 Free and two from the 200 Free. If the same swimmer occupies a qualifying position in both events, that swimmer counts only once toward the roster.
The Junior Pan Pacs program also includes the 50 Back, 50 Breast, and 50 Fly as individual events, so those events are included in Priorities 2, 3, and 8.
What “Percentage of Medal Standard” Means
The tables include each swim's Percentage of Medal Standard (% of MS). The Medal Standard is the average bronze-medal-winning time from the 2023 World Championships, 2024 Olympic Games, and 2025 World Championships for each event, as published in Appendix 1 of USA Swimming's selection procedures.
The formula is:
Percentage of MS = [(Swimmer's Time − Medal Standard) ÷ Medal Standard] × 100
A lower percentage means the swim was closer to the senior international medal benchmark. Percentage of MS does not replace Finish Order as the primary selection method. It is used to rank swimmers within a priority when the number of swimmers in that priority would exceed the remaining roster spots.
The Updated Picture
The men's roster fills all 20 places by Priority 3. Four unique swimmers enter through Priority 1, 11 through Priority 2, and the final five through Priority 3.
The women's roster reaches 20 at Priority 7. Only three unique swimmers enter through Priority 1, indicating that one swimmer occupied a top-two position in both the 100 Free and 200 Free. Nine swimmers are added at Priority 2 and six at Priority 3. The final two places go to the third- and fourth-best finishers in the 200 Free at Priorities 5 and 7.
Closest to Medal Standard
- Women: Rylee Erisman, 52.92 in the 100 Free, at +0.53%
- Men: Ian Call, 27.09 in the 50 Breast, at +1.35%
Projected Women's Roster (20/20, Unofficial)
The women's roster does not use Priorities 4, 6, or 8. Its final two selections both come from the 200 Free depth ladder: Sydney Hardy at Priority 5 and Emily Wolf at Priority 7.
Projected Men's Roster (20/20, Unofficial)
The men's roster is complete at Priority 3, so none of the 100/200 Free depth priorities or Priority 8 is needed.
Note: Mike Rice and Micah Tennison tied at 49.53 in the 100 Free final. Rice earned the Junior Pan Pac selection position via the subsequent swim-off (49.07); the swim-off established finish order but does not replace the final time.
A Few Notes
- Priority 1 does not mean the two best swimmers combined across the 100 Free and 200 Free. It means the top two in the 100 Free and the top two in the 200 Free, with duplicate swimmers counted only once.
- Rylee Erisman's 100 Free is the closest women's swim to the Medal Standard, while Ian Call's 50 Breast is the closest men's swim.
- The 50 Back, 50 Breast, and 50 Fly are Junior Pan Pac individual events and are included in the projection. Their inclusion changes the swimmers selected before the men's roster reaches its 20-swimmer limit.
- Selection is based on Finish Order among Available Swimmers. Percentage of Medal Standard only helps order swimmers within an oversubscribed priority; it is not a replacement for Finish Order.
This is an unofficial, fan-generated simulation based on final-event data from the 2026 Toyota National Championships in the Swim Standards database. Swimmers are ranked by final time within each sex and event because the database records used for this analysis do not retain official finish positions. The simulation includes the Junior Pan Pac individual-event program, including the 50 Back, 50 Breast, and 50 Fly, and applies USA Swimming's published selection priorities. It may differ from the official team because official Available Swimmer requirements—including intent, citizenship, passport, availability, and Pan Pac status—are not present in this database and must be verified separately. Scratches, disqualifications, official finish-order data, and other provisions may also affect selection. Percentage of Medal Standard is included for context and for the within-priority ordering described by USA Swimming; it is not the primary selection criterion. Refer to USA Swimming for the official roster.
