Girls 15-16 LCM NAG Record Watch: 2025-2026 Season

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Data current as of April 23, 2026 | Age eligibility cutoff: August 1, 2026 (swimmer remains 15 or 16 as of 8/1/2026)

The Girls 15-16 LCM record book is anchored by two names more than any other: Katie Ledecky, who owns the entire distance free lineup from her 2013 season, and Claire Curzan, who set three sprint and stroke marks in 2019 and 2021. Against that backdrop, this winter's 15-16 field produced one of the more compelling SCY performances in recent memory — and a handful of events where the gap between current ability and standing records is genuinely narrow.

Audrey Derivaux is the defining name of this dataset, appearing across nine events with projections and last-season LCM references that place her in realistic contention on multiple fronts. Gabi Brito and Reina Liu anchor the sprint picture. And Mikayla Tan owns the breaststroke field outright.

A note on backstroke events: the classical SCY-to-LCM conversion used throughout this dataset can produce aggressive projections in backstroke, particularly for this age group. Where projections appear to clip records by more than the last-season LCM references suggest, the real reference times are the more reliable indicator. That context is noted in each relevant section.

Sprint Freestyle

50 Freestyle — NAG: 24.17 | Claire Curzan (2021)

The 50 free field is fast but the record has clear real-world protection. Reina Liu (16) and Gabi Brito (16) are essentially tied at 21.93 and 21.95 SCY, projecting to 25.14 and 25.16 LCM — both roughly 4% above Curzan's mark. Last-season LCM references of 25.46 and 25.42 confirm that gap is real: both swimmers were over a second above the record in actual competition last summer. Avery Daigle (16) rounds out the group at 22.21 SCY (25.45 projected), with a 26.12 last-season LCM reference.

In the 50 free at this level, 1+ seconds is a meaningful gap. Liu and Brito are the class of the field in real terms — their head-to-head development is the internal story this summer.

100 Freestyle — NAG: 52.79 | Rylee Erisman (2025)

Set just last year, Erisman's 100 free mark carries strong recency protection. Gabi Brito leads at 47.77 SCY (54.62 projected), with a last-season LCM reference of 55.49 — about 2.7 seconds above the record in actual competition. Reina Liu is right behind at 48.16 SCY (55.06 projected), with a 55.41 last-season LCM reference. Kennedi Southern (16) rounds out the group at 48.52 SCY (55.46 projected), with a 55.91 last-season LCM reference.

The record is well protected in real terms — all three candidates were 2.6–3.1 seconds above it last summer. Brito leads the group on real long course performance.

Distance Freestyle

200 Freestyle — NAG: 1:55.06 | Missy Franklin (2011)

Franklin's 200 free has held since 2011. Reina Liu leads at 1:44.49 SCY (1:59.18 projected), with a last-season LCM reference of 2:01.02 — 5.96 seconds above the record in actual competition, which is a real gap in the 200 free at this level. Audrey Derivaux (16) follows at 1:44.95 SCY (1:59.69 projected), with a 2:01.78 last-season LCM reference. Abi Burke (15) rounds out the group at 1:45.56 SCY (2:00.37 projected), with a 2:02.20 last-season LCM reference.

The field projects in the 1:59–2:00 range, still 4–5% above the record. Last-season LCM references in the 2:01–2:02 range confirm the distance. The record is protected, but Liu and Derivaux are both closing in on the sub-2:00 long course barrier, which is the more meaningful milestone this summer.

400 Freestyle — NAG: 3:59.82 | Katie Ledecky (2013)

Ledecky's 400 free has stood for 13 years and the current field doesn't threaten it in real terms — last-season LCM references of 4:11.73 and 4:12.14 put the top candidates roughly 12 seconds above the record in actual competition. Audrey Derivaux projects to 4:08.20 (+3.49%), with a last-season LCM reference of 4:12.14. Brinkleigh Hansen (16) follows at 4:08.57 projected, with a 4:11.73 last-season LCM reference — the most advanced real 400 free LCM time in the group. Vivienne Zangaro (16) is third at 4:09.63 projected, with a 4:16.65 last-season LCM reference.

Hansen's 4:11.73 last-season LCM time leads the field on real performance. The record has about 12 seconds of real-world protection — no imminent threat, but the 4:10 barrier is within reach for multiple swimmers this summer.

800 Freestyle — NAG: 8:13.86 | Katie Ledecky (2013)

Audrey Derivaux leads at 8:30.20 projected (+3.31%), with no last-season LCM 800 reference available — this may be her first serious attempt at the event in a 50-meter pool. Vivienne Zangaro follows at 8:34.67 projected, with a last-season LCM reference of 8:53.72 (+8.07%) — a real baseline that shows 40 seconds of work remaining between her and the record in actual competition. Brinkleigh Hansen is third at 8:36.64 projected, with a last-season LCM reference of 8:46.19 — the most developed real 800 free LCM baseline in this group.

Hansen's 8:46 is the most grounded real reference here. Ledecky's record has real protection at every level — but this event will tell us a lot about Derivaux's long course distance ceiling once she actually races it.

1500 Freestyle — NAG: 15:36.53 | Katie Ledecky (2013)

Audrey Derivaux leads at 16:04.89 projected (+3.03%), with no last-season LCM 1500 reference — same unknown baseline as the 800. Zayda Miehl (16) and Ellie Clarke (16) follow with nearly identical projections around 16:28, with last-season LCM references of 16:37.99 and 16:38.64 respectively — over a minute above the record in real competition.

Ledecky's distance records are among the most protected marks in age group swimming. The projection picture reflects that — Derivaux is the closest on paper, but without a real LCM baseline, that projection remains to be tested.

Backstroke

A note on backstroke projections: classical SCY-to-LCM conversion tends to produce aggressive results in backstroke for this age group. The 50 and 100 back projections below clip or approach the records on paper, but last-season LCM references tell a more measured story. Both are included — the projections show SCY ceiling, the references show where these swimmers have actually been.

50 Backstroke — NAG: 27.85 | Regan Smith (2018)

All three candidates project under the record on paper — a classic case of aggressive backstroke conversion. Gabi Brito (27.08 projected) and Reina Liu (27.23 projected) are the more credible candidates based on last-season LCM references: Brito went 28.78 last summer (+3.34%) and Liu went 28.65 (+2.87%) — both real, competitive times that put them roughly 0.8–0.9 seconds above the record in actual competition. Katrin Otaegi (16) leads on projection at 27.07 but her last-season LCM reference of 29.87 (+7.25%) reflects a much earlier stage of long course backstroke development.

Liu's 28.65 and Brito's 28.78 are the relevant real baselines — both within 1 second of Smith's record in actual competition. That's genuinely close in the 50 back. If either swimmer makes a significant LCM improvement this summer, this event is worth watching.

100 Backstroke — NAG: 58.82 | Claire Curzan (2021)

The classical conversion again produces projections that clip the record — Liu at 57.81 (-1.72%), Brito at 58.32 (-0.85%), Hutchison at 58.78 (-0.07%). Last-season LCM references provide the real context. Shelby Hutchinson (16) has the most grounded reference at 1:01.49 (+4.54%), while Reina Liu's 1:01.07 (+3.83%) is the most advanced real 100 back LCM time in this group. Both are roughly 2–2.7 seconds above the record in actual competition.

The projections here are better understood as a SCY performance ceiling than a reliable LCM forecast. Real last-season references put the field 2.5–4.5 seconds above the record — protected for now, but Liu's development arc in backstroke is one to track.

200 Backstroke — NAG: 2:05.10 | Missy Franklin (2011)

This is the most compelling backstroke event in the girls dataset — and one of the most credible record watches overall. Audrey Derivaux projects to 2:06.31 (+0.97%), and her last-season LCM reference of 2:06.68 is just 1.26% above the record — the projection and the real reference are closely aligned, which makes this one credible on both measures. Reina Liu projects to 2:06.91, but her last-season LCM reference of 2:12.41 (+5.84%) reflects a much larger real gap. Ellie Clarke (16) is third at 2:08.02 projected, with a 2:11.68 last-season LCM reference.

Derivaux's 2:06.68 last-season LCM time is the headline in this event — she's been within 1.58 seconds and 1.26% of Franklin's record in real competition. That's genuinely close at the 200 back level. This is one of the records most worth watching this summer.

Breaststroke

50 Breaststroke — NAG: 30.78 | Emily Willham (2017)

Mikayla Tan (16) leads and dominates this event. Her projection of 31.45 (+2.18%) is the tightest in the sprint breaststroke field, and her last-season LCM reference of 31.41 (+2.05%) is essentially the same — meaning the conversion math closely mirrors her actual performance, a strong sign of consistent long course form. Bianca Nwaizu (16) follows at 31.87 projected, with a 31.82 last-season LCM reference — again, projection and real reference nearly identical. Lane Francis (16) rounds out the group at 32.05 projected with no last-season LCM reference available.

Tan and Nwaizu both show tight alignment between projection and last-season LCM reference — a sign both swimmers convert well in this event. The record is about 2% above their real performances, which in sprint breaststroke is meaningful but not out of reach on a multi-season horizon.

100 Breaststroke — NAG: 1:07.05 | Megan Jendrick (2000)

A 26-year-old record — and this is one of the most compelling event watch lists in the dataset. Mikayla Tan and Bianca Nwaizu are essentially tied at the top — 59.04 and 59.05 SCY respectively, projecting to 1:07.53 and 1:07.55 — both just 0.48–0.50 seconds and under 0.75% above Jendrick's record on paper. Last-season LCM references of 1:09.36 (+3.45%) and 1:09.85 (+4.18%) put the real gap at roughly 2–3 seconds, which is a more honest measure of where things stand in actual competition. Grace Koenig-Song (16) is third at 1:08.91 projected, with a last-season LCM reference of 1:09.14 — the most advanced real 100 breast LCM time in the group.

Tan and Nwaizu project within 0.75% of a 26-year-old record — that's a meaningful signal. Their last-season LCM references in the 1:09 range are the honest baseline, and Koenig-Song's 1:09.14 leads the field on real performance. If any of these three makes a 2-second LCM improvement this summer, Jendrick's record is in genuine jeopardy.

200 Breaststroke — NAG: 2:25.35 | Anita Nall (1992)

A record from 1992 that may be the most vulnerable in this entire dataset. Mikayla Tan projects to 2:24.68 — fractionally under the record (-0.46%) on paper. More tellingly, her last-season LCM reference of 2:28.13 (+1.91%) puts her within 2.78 seconds of Nall's mark in actual competition. The projection and the reference both point in the same direction. Grace Koenig-Song (16) follows at 2:29.22 projected, with a 2:32.42 last-season LCM reference. Salem Bahr (16) rounds out the group at 2:29.48 projected, with a 2:32.45 last-season LCM reference.

This is the record most likely to fall in 2026. Tan's projection clips it and her last-season LCM reference confirms she's been within 2.78 seconds in actual competition — a gap of under 2%. Her trajectory and consistency across all three breaststroke events make this one to watch closely when long course competition begins.

Butterfly

50 Butterfly — NAG: 25.70 | Torri Huske (2019)

Gabi Brito leads at 23.17 SCY (26.42 projected, +2.8%), with a last-season LCM reference of 26.47 — closely aligned with her projection, a sign she converts well in the 50 fly. Avery Daigle follows at 23.52 SCY (26.81 projected), though her last-season LCM reference of 27.98 (+8.87%) reflects a much larger real gap. Kennedi Southern (16) rounds out the group at 23.82 SCY (27.14 projected), with a 27.50 last-season LCM reference.

Brito's 26.47 last-season LCM time leads the field in real performance — 0.77 seconds above the record, or 3.0%. In the 50 fly, that's a real gap. Her projection-to-reference alignment is the most encouraging sign in this event.

100 Butterfly — NAG: 56.20 | Claire Curzan (2021)

Gabi Brito leads at 51.20 SCY (58.23 projected, +3.61%), with a last-season LCM reference of 59.49 — 3.29 seconds and 5.85% above the record in actual competition. Audrey Derivaux follows at 51.74 SCY (58.83 projected), with a last-season LCM reference of 58.63 — notably ahead of her own projection, confirming she converts efficiently in the 100 fly. Jianna Amores (15) rounds out the group at 51.78 SCY (58.88 projected), with a 1:00.12 last-season LCM reference.

Derivaux's 58.63 last-season LCM time leads the field in real performance — 2.43 seconds above Curzan's record. That's about 4.3% and a real gap for the 100 fly, but her projection-to-reference alignment makes her the most credible long course candidate here.

200 Butterfly — NAG: 2:05.96 | Mary Meagher (1981)

A 45-year-old record — and this is arguably the most striking real-performance story in the girls dataset. Audrey Derivaux projects to 2:07.90 (+1.54%), but her last-season LCM reference of 2:06.46 is just 0.50 seconds and 0.4% above Meagher's record. She was essentially at the record in actual long course competition last summer. Ellie Clarke (16) follows at 2:08.92 projected, with a last-season LCM reference of 2:12.43 (+5.14%). Reina Liu rounds out the group at 2:11.36 projected with no last-season LCM reference available.

Derivaux's 2:06.46 last-season LCM time is the most important number in this entire girls dataset. She was already 0.5 seconds from Meagher's 45-year-old record in real competition last summer. A focused 200 fly campaign this season makes this record a genuine target.

Individual Medley

200 IM — NAG: 2:08.91 | Leah Hayes (2022)

Audrey Derivaux projects to 2:09.60 — just 0.69 seconds and 0.54% above Hayes's 2022 record. Her last-season LCM reference of 2:10.91 (+1.55%) puts her within 2 seconds of the record in actual competition. Both measures point in the same direction, and the alignment between projection and real reference is tight — a strong signal that her long course IM form matches her SCY level. Gabi Brito (16) follows at 2:11.69 projected (+2.16%), with a last-season LCM reference of 2:15.61 (+5.2%). Mikayla Tan rounds out the group at 2:12.10 projected, with a 2:15.20 last-season LCM reference.

Derivaux's 2:10.91 last-season LCM time puts her within 2 seconds and 1.55% of Hayes's record in actual competition. Combined with a 0.54% projection gap, this is one of the more credible record threats in the dataset — and one that warrants close attention this summer.

400 IM — NAG: 4:32.67 | Katie Grimes (2022)

Audrey Derivaux projects to 4:34.83 — just 2.16 seconds and 0.79% above Grimes's record. Her last-season LCM reference of 4:41.39 (+3.2%) is the more measured real baseline, putting her 8.72 seconds above the record in actual competition. Ellie Clarke (16) follows at 4:40.31 projected (+2.8%), with a last-season LCM reference of 4:45.45. Sydney Hardy (15) rounds out the group at 4:43.60 projected, with a 4:47.86 last-season LCM reference.

Derivaux's 4:41 last-season LCM time is the most relevant real benchmark — she's been within 8.7 seconds of Grimes's record in actual competition. The projection gap of 0.79% is tight on paper; whether her IM long course form continues to close that gap is the question the season will answer.

Overall Picture

Audrey Derivaux (16) is the defining story of the Girls 15-16 LCM field this cycle. She appears across nine events, and unlike some multi-event profiles where SCY dominance outpaces real long course results, her last-season LCM references are consistently tight with her projections — a sign of genuine long course efficiency.

The events that stand out most on real performance:

200 Butterfly: Her 2:06.46 last-season LCM time is 0.5 seconds and 0.4% from Meagher's 45-year-old record — the closest any swimmer in this dataset gets to a standing record in real competition.
200 IM: Her 2:10.91 last-season LCM reference puts her within 1.55% of Hayes's 2022 record.
200 Backstroke: Her 2:06.68 last-season LCM reference sits 1.26% above Franklin's 2011 record.
400 IM: Her projection (+0.79%) and real reference (+3.2%) both indicate continued pressure on Grimes's 2022 mark.

Mikayla Tan (16) is the breaststroke story — her 200 breast last-season LCM reference of 2:28.13 is within 2% of Nall's 1992 record, with a projection that actually clips it. She also shows the tightest projection-to-reference alignment of any swimmer in this dataset across her breaststroke events, confirming she converts consistently in long course.

Gabi Brito and Reina Liu (16) lead the sprint free and backstroke fields respectively in real long course performance, with development arcs that make both worth following through the summer.

All projections use classical SCY-to-LCM conversion. Converted times are estimates only. Backstroke projections in particular can run aggressive with classical conversion — last-season LCM references are the more reliable indicator in those events. Last-season LCM reference times are from the 2024–25 season. Age eligibility based on August 1, 2026 cutoff (swimmer remains 15 or 16 as of 8/1/2026).